Prediction-Market Intelligence

Follow the money that actually wins.
Not the leaderboards that lie.

We work from the full on-chain Polymarket record — not the public leaderboard — rebuild each wallet's real, realized profit and loss, and follow the handful with the strongest recent track record, surfacing the most compelling positions they're taking each week. It's research to inform your own decisions, not betting tips.

Polymarket-sourced  ·  tagged by where you can act  ·  weekly brief  ·  cancel anytime
Why the leaderboards lie The leaderboard numbers aren't real

Every free tracker ranks wallets off Polymarket's public leaderboard — and those figures are gamed.

What the leaderboards show you

Inflated

The headline profit figures are gamed — inflated by wash trading and decimal farming, and counted buy-only. A wallet ranked at the top can have a small fraction of the real edge its profile claims.

What we surface instead

The real record

We ignore the surface and rebuild each wallet's actual realized profit and loss from the full on-chain history, then follow the ones genuinely winning over the recent period. You're tracking verified recent performance, not a gamed leaderboard.

What lands in your inbox A recent week, unedited

Real calls from the roster — each tagged with the venue where you can act on it, the price the roster entered at, and where it stands now. Every one is logged the moment it's surfaced and scored when the market resolves.

KALSHI roster wallet · HIDEO WIN · +0.64 / $1
US–Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Yes  ·  entry 0.61  →  resolved Yes
POLYMARKET roster wallet · SOCIABLE-ROOSTER PENDING
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes  ·  entry 0.29  →  tracking live on the Record
POLYMARKET roster wallet · SOCIABLE-ROOSTER PENDING
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Yes  ·  entry 0.53  →  tracking live on the Record

Follow the Record as it builds →

How it worksHow we rebuild the real record

Four steps, in plain terms.

01

We read the complete history

Every trade ever made on Polymarket — the complete on-chain record — pulled straight from the blockchain, not the surface leaderboard everyone else scrapes.

02

We reconstruct real profit

For each wallet we net every buy against every sell and settle whatever's left at the market's actual result — true profit and loss, not the buy-only shortcut that flatters active traders.

03

We screen for genuine recent performance

From those rebuilt, realized records we keep the wallets that have actually been winning over the recent period — weighting by how many positions they've resolved, so a short lucky streak doesn't qualify, and dropping wallets whose edge has faded or that turn out to be bots.

04

We follow a roster, not one wallet

No single address is a sure thing, so we track a curated set of wallets rather than betting on any one — that's how we stay off any single lucky run. From that roster, the brief surfaces the strongest active positions each week.

The proofWe don't ask you to trust a backtest

Any method tuned on history can be made to look good in hindsight — which is exactly why we don't lead with a backtest. The only test that counts is forward, in public.

So from launch, every position we surface is logged the day we surface it, dated and checkable, and scored when the market actually resolves — no edits, no quiet deletions, no cherry-picking after the fact. The record is thin at first and grows in the open. That's the point: you watch it accumulate in real time rather than taking our word for a number. See the live ledger below.

The honest partWhat we don't claim

Not a return promise

Skilled wallets earn a real but moderate edge, and it varies a lot wallet to wallet. We report the roster's record; we don't promise you a number.

Not advice

We show you where skilled money is positioned. Every decision you make is your own.

Not the leaderboard

We don't use the scraped leaderboard figures everyone else relies on — we rebuild realized performance from the full chain, because the public numbers are gamed.

Not magic — just rigor

It's statistics applied honestly to the complete record. The edge comes from doing that work, and from keeping the roster current as skill fades and emerges.

What you get What a membership includes
01

The Weekly Brief

Each week, the few most compelling positions the skilled roster has taken — what they're backing, the thesis, and where conviction is converging. Every call is tagged with the venue where you can trade it. Delivered to your inbox.

02

The Roster You Follow

The curated set of wallets with the strongest verified recent records, shown as aliases. You see who's on the roster, what they're holding, and how they've performed — refreshed as the data updates, so faded wallets drop off and newly qualifying ones are added.

03

The Members' Dashboard Coming next

An always-on view of the roster's current positions, plus convergence alerts the moment several wallets pile into the same position — so you can track the money between briefs. In active development; founding access locks today's rate and funds the build.

04

The Public Track Record

Every call we surface, time-stamped at entry and scored when the market resolves — open for anyone to check. No edits, no hindsight. It's the receipts — and the only proof that counts.

The recordJudge us on the receipts

Every call we surface, time-stamped at entry and scored when the market resolves. No edits, no hindsight.

Cumulative return · per $1 deployed

resolved record

The ledger

Loading the record…

Positions reflect where wallets with the strongest verified recent records entered. Open positions show masked entry price, side, and venue until the market resolves, comes within 3 days of closing, or 21 days have passed — so nothing here can be front-run. This is information about market positioning, not investment advice, and past positioning does not predict outcomes. The record updates automatically as markets settle.

Founding access Lock the founding rate
Monthly
$15 / month
$180/year billed monthly. Cancel anytime.
Start monthly →

Founding rate locked for as long as you stay subscribed · 14-day refund, no questions · Cancel anytime.
This is market analytics and intelligence — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to place any trade.

Not ready to commit?

Get the free weekly snapshot of what the skilled money is doing.

Get the Free Newsletter
Why trust it Built on rigor, not scraping

Full on-chain history

We analyze the complete trade record, not the surface leaderboard everyone else scrapes.

A real skill test

Wallets are scored against a simulation of their own luck — so favorite-farmers don't make the list.

Independent & unbiased

One neutral view, owned by no platform. Polymarket today, Kalshi on the way.

Intelligence, not advice

We show you what skilled money is doing. Every decision you make is your own.

For informational and educational purposes only. Follow the Leaders provides market analytics, not financial, investment, or trading advice, and is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any trade you place is your decision alone — never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.